3 Major Warning Signs for Biden
(UnitedVoice.com) – Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) shouldn’t get complacent with his lead in polls. Over the last few weeks, his poll numbers have been dropping as President Donald Trump’s numbers are rebounding. However, pollsters are missing three key ingredients that could spell doom for the Democrats this fall.
- Trump has made an aggressive push to court support in the Black community.
- Gaining the support of college students could be problematic for Biden.
- Republican voter registrations are outpacing Democrats.
Put these issues together and it’s clear that trends are emerging and pollsters are not picking up on them. They could have a profound impact on the 2020 November election.
Biden Losing Support in the Black Community
In the South Carolina primary in late February, Biden rode the wave of Black support to win the state and pick-up momentum after losing the first three primaries. However, in recent months his performance has diminished as the country experienced protests, riots, lawlessness, and calls to defund police in the wake of George Floyd’s death. This could spell doom for Biden’s campaign if he can’t rebuild momentum in this environment.
According to a John Zogby Strategies and EMI Research poll, Biden has the support of 77% of black voters to Trump’s 14%. In 2016, Trump won only 8% of the black vote. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), the Republican’s only black Senator, said if Trump wins 14% of the black vote, it’s “game over.”
Other polls showed a trend was developing as well. In November, we reported that Trump was earning significant gains among black voters and that Democrats could be in trouble. Biden needs the Black vote to win and if he can’t secure more than 75%, it may be lights out.
College Students May Not Make It to Campus
As colleges grapple with how to protect students, faculty, and staff this fall due to COVID-19, the decision to close campuses could have an impact on the election. While college students don’t usually make up a large portion of the electorate, those who are not available to vote in college towns could make a difference in crucial swing states.
Some states offer same-day registration to turn out college students. If young people who do not live in these states are not in school, they won’t be able to help swing an election where only a few hundred or thousand votes could make a difference.
Republicans Outpacing Democratic Voter Registrations
Since COVID-19, American’s views are changing and so is their desire to vote. In the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Republicans are outpacing Democrats in new voter registrations. According to Ben Wessel, Executive Director of NextGen America, Democrats are getting nervous about what they are seeing.
Democrats blame their abysmal numbers on COVID-19 and the shutdowns. However, that doesn’t account for the Republican surge in these states. To this point, Republicans have momentum as the party has already registered more voters than in the entire 2016 cycle.
There are a few things we know in these states. First, all but Florida are run by Democratic governors who implemented draconian shutdown and stay-at-home orders in March. This hurt their economies drastically as businesses were forced to close. The resulting economic issues could have an impact on voter turnout.
Florida is the one exception. In June, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was praised for how he handled the situation.
If these three trends continue to break against Biden, Trump may have an opportunity to expand upon his Electoral College numbers this fall. It’s still early and anything can happen.
Keep an eye on the real factors influencing how the election pans out as fall approaches. The polls will say little about the outcome. Instead, it will come down to voter registration and turnout.
By Don Purdum, Freelance Contributor
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