(UnitedVoice.com) – Democrats and the national media are painting the upcoming election with optimistic caution. On the one hand, they are overly optimistic when looking at the national polls. However, on the other hand, there are warning signs that suggest problems loom for Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Yet, the media is portraying the election as being in the bag for Biden based on early voting. However, that may not be an entirely accurate picture.
The former vice president took the entire week off from the campaign to prepare for the Thursday, October 22 debate with President Trump. The Democratic nominee’s strategy is unique and unprecedented.
In the meantime, Trump is jetting all over the country, connecting personally with voters in battleground states. His rallies are drawing thousands of voters at a time. Somehow, he has the time to travel and tell voters exactly what he thinks, prepare for the debate, and run the country. Yet, Biden won’t leave the basement to tell voters his position on packing the Supreme Court.
Concerns are beginning to leak out of the campaign, and some are beginning to acknowledge that the race is a lot tighter than they thought. Perhaps there’s a good reason for their unease.
Hunter Biden Corruption Story Is Dangerous
There can only be two reasons for the Biden campaign to hide the candidate away two weeks ahead of the election. First, the campaign may believe Biden is so far ahead that the vote is baked in, and he doesn’t need to campaign. That’s not likely. Or, his team is protecting him from the media who may start asking questions about the allegations of corruption surrounding the former vice president and his son.
Over the weekend, he was asked about the allegations. The former VP snapped and said he had no response and that it was a “smear campaign.” At this point, the calculation may be that he has nothing to gain by making any further statements. The last time Biden did, he denied knowing anything about it contrary to the information coming out now.
As of Oct. 20, a new picture surfaced with both Bidens and a Kazakhstan oligarch, who was Hunter’s business partner. As each day goes by, this story becomes more legitimate despite Democrats claim that this is all Russian disinformation. However, the FBI on Tuesday backed up Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe’s assertion that it’s not.
This issue may explode and hurt Biden significantly with voters who wait to cast their ballots just before or on election day.
Biden Underperforming Clinton
On October 20, 2016, Hillary Clinton was safely ahead of Donald Trump in battleground states. In 2020, Biden’s performance is nowhere near Clinton’s despite the four-year campaign to discredit Trump by Democrats and the media. A close snapshot analysis of the RealClearPolitics poll for October 20 of averages of the states Trump won reveals:
- In Pennsylvania, Clinton led Trump by 6.2 points. Bided is up 3.8 points.
- In Michigan, Clinton led by 12 points. Biden is up 7.2 points.
- In Wisconsin, Clinton led by 6.5 points. Biden is up 6.3 points.
- In Florida, Clinton led by 4 points. Biden is up 1.6 points.
- In North Carolina, Clinton was up 2.8 points. Biden is up 2.3 points.
- In Arizona, Clinton was up 1.5 points. Biden is up 3.1 points.
Polls Not Accurately Predicting Turnout
As chronicled often in United Voice, the polls are not accurately reflecting voter sentiment. The only poll in the RealClearPolitics average that consistently breaks with the media polls is the Trafalgar Group. It was also the only poll to accurately predict the 2016 election.
They take an entirely different polling approach that includes fewer questions, larger samples, and better representation of conservatives. They are currently predicting Trump to win re-election, again, based on their polling in the battleground states.
Right now, Biden has a lot more to lose than Trump. Trump is a firebrand who will say what’s on his mind. To a calculated lifelong politician like Biden, Trump is dangerous. Especially with the corruption story sitting out there gaining exposure every day without a direct response from Biden.
Biden already appears calculating by refusing to talk about packing the Supreme Court. He could make it worse and force voters to go with what they know in Trump versus what they don’t in Biden.
Hold on tight. This race is just heating up.
By Don Purdum, Independent Political Analyst
Copyright 2020, UnitedVoice.com