Does the GOP Have the Edge in the 2022 Midterms?

Does the GOP Have the Edge in the 2022 Midterms?

( – There are many factors political scientists and managers use to determine the potential outcome of an election. In 2020, more voters showed up to cast a ballot than at any time in over 120 years. Nearly two-thirds of the electorate cast a passionate vote for or against President Donald Trump. Exit polls showed 44% of voters said they cast a ballot against Trump instead of for Joe Biden.

Now, Biden’s approval ratings are tanking as independents in large numbers may have buyers’ remorse. The economy isn’t doing well, inflation is sky high, grocery stores are struggling to keep shelves filled, America’s foreign policy is in tatters in the wake of Afghanistan, and immigration is a total disaster. So, is it any wonder a new poll shows the GOP has a slight edge heading into the 2022 midterms?

The real question is, can Republicans expand their poll numbers and turn out voters one year from now?

Poll Gives Generic Republicans the Edge

A new Harvard CAPS-Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill suggests the GOP has a great shot at taking over the Congress in 2022. Of the voters surveyed, 45% say they would vote for a Republican in the district. A close 42% said they would vote for a Democrat, and 13% said they were uncertain.

While three points may not sound like much, it’s significant in context. Historically, the party controlling the White House loses Congress in the first midterm election of an administration. This time around, it’s more complicated for Democrats. They only have a three-seat majority in the House, which is a near-record low over the last century. In 2020, incumbent Republicans defended every seat and picked off 16 vulnerable Democrats despite the presidential election outcome. That’s not insignificant.

In 2020, Republicans forced Democrats to defend socialism, defunding the police, riots, and their left-wing economic and climate agenda. This time around, the issues remain as crime is too high across the country and cities continue to defund the police. In addition, vaccination mandates are forcing untold thousands of cops off the job who refuse to vaccinate. Combine that issue with Biden’s tanking poll numbers, the economy, inflation, and the Democrat’s far-Left radical agenda to transform America and it’s a potential disaster for Democrats. In a recent Gallup poll, most voters said they wanted the government to do less, not more.

Now, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll shows 32% of Americans believe the Democrat’s radical semi-socialist and climate change proposals would hurt them if it becomes law. Only 25% believe the legislation would help them. Once again, Biden is getting battered by Independents. Without them, there aren’t enough Progressives to pull them over the top.

There’s More to It…

In addition, redistricting will have a profound impact on the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP controls the majority of state legislatures and governorships, enabling them to carve out districts more favorable to Republicans. Democrats need a slight edge in the generic ballot to prevent them from losing seats, which isn’t shaping up to be the case.

So, where does all this leave us heading into 2022? It’s more likely than not the GOP will flip both the House and the Senate next year. Democrats are likely to face heated primaries between moderates and far-left candidates. That alone will cut some of their numbers in a general election. The Left may not show up to vote for a moderate, and a moderate Democrat could flip votes to the GOP.

Then there’s this…in numerous battleground states, Democrats are losing registered voters to Republicans. In two years, over 200,000 people switched to the GOP in Pennsylvania. It’s nearly the same in North Carolina. In Florida, the state is becoming deeper red as 200,000 left the Democratic Party for the GOP in just two years.

Combined all together, it’s not unrealistic to expect a Republican tidal wave in 2022. Yet, there must be caution. Voters must vote, and they are the ultimate poll. One year in politics can feel like a lifetime.

Don Purdum, Independent Political Analyst

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