(UnitedVoice.com) – As America’s calendar barrel rolls towards the 2022 primary season kicking off in January, Republicans feel especially emboldened. Why shouldn’t they? The momentum is in their favor. They have history on their side. Only twice since 1962 has a president’s party picked up seats in a midterm election. Plus, 26 GOP-led states are drawing congressional boundaries, which are likely to help increase the number of Republicans in the House as well.
Despite those advantages, the best thing House Republicans have going for them are Democrats. In 2020, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden ran as a Centrist who defeated the supposed Socialists. We’re 10 months into his presidency, and it’s obvious Biden is anything but a Moderate as he governs from the far-Left. Voters are on to him and the Democrats, as evidenced by election outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey on November 2.
Then there are the supposed Moderates who voted for the semi-Socialist Build Back Better proposal on Friday, November 19, and made themselves more vulnerable by voting with the Left. On Tuesday, November 23, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) added more vulnerable Democrats to their Exit List.
Vulnerable Democrats Put a Target on Their Back
In normal election years, some moderate Democrats are more vulnerable than others, but they may all be susceptible this year. In November 2020, House Republicans achieved the unimaginable. They held every incumbent seat and shockingly flipped 16 Democratic seats to give House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) the smallest majority in nearly a century.
The Democrats only have a 3 vote advantage, and Republicans only need to pick off five vulnerable Democrats to take back the house in November 2022. That is more than doable. In fact, it’s almost a guarantee, if there’s truly such a thing.
In March, the NRCC identified 27 vulnerable Democrats to target in 2022. After every Moderate but one voted in lockstep with the Left to pass the Build Back Better agenda, Republicans added 17 more names to the list. Among them are Pelosi and number three House Democrat James Clyburn. Those two may be more symbolic, but their districts could be in play if Pelosi retires and Clyburn stumbles in Conservative South Carolina.
Republicans are already defining Democrats as the party of inflation, illegal immigration and identity politics based on Critical Race Theory. It’s a trifecta that will be hard for Democrats to overcome. The proof is in their votes and rhetoric. Check out the latest video the NRCC released targeting vulnerable moderate Democrats on inflation.
More Democratic Retirements Could Be on the Way
So far, 17 Democrats say they are either retiring or leaving Congress for other opportunities. As the holidays arrive, Congress members decide whether they will pursue re-election or not ahead of the primary season kickoff in January. Once Democrats are in the coziness of their homes, they’ll determine if it’s worth getting beat up in the minority in 2023. More Democrats could announce their plans to retire or move on from Congress.
Retirements are usually a barometer of the political environment. If a member retires or leaves Congress, the odds are good internal polling shows they will likely lose in their district. In 2018, a blue wave hit, but ahead of it, 23 GOP Congress members chose not to run for re-election and retired.
As it stands, many political pundits and analysts suggest a red wave is coming in 2022 if Democrats can’t right the ship.
The way they’re going, that’s not likely.
Don Purdum, Independent Political Analyst
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