Is Trump Certain to Lose?

Is Trump Certain to Lose?

( – If you watch the mainstream media, read their polls, and listen to Democrats, you may be led to believe the election is over — with Joe Biden being the next President of the United States. Spin doctors will now try to capitalize on Thursday morning’s bad news about the economy in the second quarter. They will continue to try and blame Trump for the economic fallout from COVID-19 based on this report from July 30.

The question is — will Democrats be successful in convincing enough voters that Trump and the Republican party are responsible for the choices Democratic governors have made since March?

On Thursday morning, the US economy shrunk by an astounding 32.9% annual rate from April to June. It was to be expected after the government shutdown of businesses and stay-at-home orders that left nearly 40 million people unemployed at one point in April. There are still approximately 17 million people on unemployment programs and the unemployment rate is stuck at 13%.

The answer may be simpler than it appears.

The economy will not be the only issue voters have to consider. As rioters continue their destructive behavior, the far-left is pushing to defund the police and advocate for other massive social changes. Questions also abound about Joe Biden’s age and health. As the issue of his age gains steam in the context of his vice-presidential pick, who could potentially become president during Biden’s term may also play a vital role in voter’s minds.

Trump’s Approval Rating Higher Than Obama’s

According to the Rasmussen daily tracking poll on Thursday, July 30, Trump had a one-point higher approval rating than Obama did at the same time in his first term. Over the last month, amongst the economic and social issues, Trump has consistently polled at or above Obama’s approval rating.

It’s noteworthy that Rasmussen was the one polling organization that predicted the 2016 election right, and is not owned or operated by a media outlet. Yet, the same media-owned polls that got 2016 wrong have Trump behind by five to eight points.

While Democrats will try to make the case that Trump is responsible for COVID-19, the belief that he is or isn’t will unsurprisingly fall along party lines. As discussed before, the election will be won or lost based on enthusiasm, which will drive voter turnout. The more Biden talks, the less enthused Democrats become — some are openly admitting they aren’t excited about him.

In recent battleground polls on enthusiasm, Trump leads Biden by two to nine points. Don’t forget, Biden also has a problem uniting the far-left and moderate center of the party. Already, the far-left is expressing its dissatisfaction. On the other hand, Trump has nearly complete unity amongst Republicans.

Finally, a first of its kind virtual fundraiser on July 22 single handedly hauled in a massive $20 million for Trump’s campaign from 300,000 people. If they thought he was going to lose based on the overwhelmingly negative media, so many would not have donated so much. Last month, Biden and former President Barack Obama only raised $7.6 million in a virtual event together.

Issues to Watch for Through September

While the economy is always a big issue, this year it will take on a new meaning in light of COVID-19. The question will not be about the state of the economy. COVID-19 has ensured it will be limping along through the rest of this year. The question will be: who has the economic mindset to lead America into a new economy?

Second, the far-left hijacking of the Democratic Party will play a more significant role the closer to the November election it gets. If rioters are still destroying Democratic-led towns, if city councils defund police, and if they continue to restrict the police’s ability to control the situations, it will help Republicans who are pro-law enforcement and pro-public safety.

On Tuesday, July 28, Attorney General William Barr said the Democratic Party was the only party supporting rioters, advocating defund the police movements, and allowing cities to burn.

The next day in Seattle, hundreds of residents spoke up about the dangerous and radical experiment to defund the police. The Seattle police union collected over 20,000 signatures against the city council’s proposal to cut the police force in half.

Finally, watch the congressional races. In normal times, the presidential race determines the outcome of congressional ones. However, this year it could be just the opposite as candidates deal with the real-life issues in their communities and districts. Voters are skeptical as only 1 out of 3 voters is pleased with their representatives. There is a significant opportunity for Republicans to take back the House in light of Democratic governors’ COVID-19 orders, riots, and issues with police.

Trump and the Republicans are far from losing. The only ones who believe that right now are Democratically elected officials, activists, and the media who shape their narratives. We’ve been here before.

Remember 2016?

By Don Purdum, Freelance Contributor

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