Prospects for GOP Taking House Grow More Positive

Prospects for GOP Taking House Grow More Positive

( – The clock is ticking as House Democrats work overtime to pass as many far-left pieces of legislation as they can. Traditionally, midterm elections sandwiched between presidential election cycles are a challenge for the party that holds the White House. However, 2022 is a very different kind of cycle due to the political environment. Once again, a confluence of events threatens to strike the power balance in Washington, DC.

It’s an all-too-familiar pattern for House Democrats. In 2012, Democrats fought for their political lives in the wake of passing Obamacare on a pure party-line vote in both the House and Senate. That year, Republicans won the House with historic gains as the country rebelled from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and the Democratic party. Heading into 2022, it could be a repeat of 2012.

Democrats Rush to the Far-Left Shows Signs of Fracture

This time around, Moderates warned Democrats after the 2020 election to end the defunding of the police movement and stop the talk of socialism. That didn’t happen. Just six months ago, numerous moderate Democrats lost seats that they expected to win, and the Republicans surprisingly didn’t lose a single seat. Their gains gave Pelosi the smallest majority in nearly a century. Currently, Democrats only have a six-seat advantage.

Not only do some moderate Democrats have a problem in their district, but they also face redistricting. Republicans control 30 legislatures to the Democrats 19, and one is split. Worse yet, after the census report came out, several red states added seats at the expense of blue states whose populations dropped. That puts Democrats at a sizable disadvantage in states like Texas and Florida.

Compounding the Democrat’s problems, three moderates recently announced they are moving on from the halls of Congress instead of facing bruising battles they are likely to lose. Moderate districts threaten their re-election chances as their representatives abandon them over the far-left agenda the elected officials support to keep the Democratic leadership happy.

Dems Announce Departures From the House

So, who’s moving on?

  • Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL) – Crist is a former Republican and independent governor turned Democrat who is about to announce he’s going to run for Florida governor again.
  • Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL) – Bustos is one of seven House Democrats representing a constituency that voted for Donald Trump in 2020. She recently announced her retirement. The moderate was known to work across the aisle, and two-thirds of the legislation she introduced was bipartisan.
  • Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) – Ryan’s district is likely to change significantly and unfavorably as the GOP-led Ohio legislature re-draws his district. Ryan recently announced he’s running for the Ohio Senate seat currently held by retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH).

With such small majorities in the House, Democrats realize the challenge in front of them. So does the GOP. Successful politicians rarely play when it’s obvious they will lose. They are too hyper-competitive for that. Instead, expect in the coming year more retirement announcements as their internal polls solidify the warnings moderates made in November 2020.

It seems, once again, that Pelosi didn’t learn her lesson. Or, perhaps she doesn’t care? Whatever they do pass could be hard for the GOP to unwind if they successfully win in 2022 and 2024. At least, Democrats are banking on it.

It’s a hopeful sign of things to come for Republicans.

Don Purdum, Independent Political Analyst

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