Election Results Show UNUSUAL Trend Developing
(UnitedVoice.com) – On Tuesday, September 13, the primary election season officially ended, and now the real fun begins. Primary voters often differ from those who will cast a ballot in November. Still, data can help political analysts understand the environment ahead of an election. The question: is the data flawed?
In GOP primaries, a surprising trend emerged. It appears Republican primary voters were willing to take a risk and nominate first-time candidates to run against Democrats this fall. The US House of Representatives, the Senate, and numerous governor openings are at stake. So, what could happen next?
New GOP Candidates Take Center Stage
In several Republican primaries, first-time nominees defeated more experienced campaigners or those with more name recognition. Apparently, Conservatives are tired of entrenched politicians and want to see if the newcomers can shake things up, advance their causes, and win elections.
So, who are the surprise first-time contenders?
Let’s take a quick look:
- Ohio: Senate candidate JD Vance secured the nomination on May 3 with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.
- Pennsylvania: Dr. Oz Mehmet endured a brutal primary campaign after Trump endorsed him in April.
- Wyoming: Trump-supported candidate Harriet Hageman unseated Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) resoundingly.
- New Mexico: Meteorologist Mark Ronchetti defeated two gubernatorial prospects to secure his place on the ballot in November.
- Arizona: TV news anchor Kari Lake beat an establishment candidate after acquiring Trump’s support.
- Wisconsin: Construction executive Tim Michels secured the nomination to take on the incumbent Democratic governor. He also earned an endorsement from the former president.
What Can Voters Expect Heading Into November?
Every year, pundits suggest the current election is the most important one in American history. It may not be far off the mark this time around. Voters have a lot to consider. What will matter most to them? Will it be the economy, inflation, jobs, abortion, or education?
On Wednesday, September 14, Fox News released a poll. It reported the top concerns among voters included:
- Inflation – 59%
- Future of American Democracy (50%)
- Abortion (45%)
- Crime (43%)
According to the poll, those whose top concern centered on inflation and crime were more likely to vote for a Republican candidate by 12% and 17%, respectively. Those worried about abortion and democracy were more likely to vote Democratic by 29% and 7%, respectively. The survey also stated that nationwide, 44% were leaning Democrat and 41% were leaning Republican.
Elections aren’t won based on national polls. Voters decide them at the local level. However, the poll did not offer a partisan breakdown.
On Tuesday, September 13, a Morning Consult-Politico poll showed voter enthusiasm was almost even between Democrats and Republicans but made no mention of Independents.
Still, polling may not be reliable. On Monday, the New York Times wrote pollsters are repeating the same mistakes that led them to make wrong determinations in 2016 and 2020.
With so much at stake, in the end, the election results will come down to how many voters a campaign turned out to cast a ballot for a candidate. So, will the newcomers appeal to independent voters seeking change? They could decide the midterm election in less than eight weeks.
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