(UnitedVoice.com) – For months, the majority of polls indicated Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden was significantly leading President Trump and on his way to the White House. Yet, questions are swirling.
Did the news media, who owns the majority of polls, and pollsters learned their lesson from 2016?
So far this year, the polls oversampled Democrats while under sampling Republicans. This skewed outlook created the impression that Biden was far ahead of the president. However, a new CNN poll released on Sunday, August 16, showed Trump has caught up with Biden in 15 key battleground states.
New @CNN (ssrs) poll: Biden 50%, Trump 46%. But look at the past 4 CNN polls. Regardless of whom you favor, it is a bit difficult to buy that from April to August, Biden's lead was +11, then +5, then +14, then +4. Bouncing around way too much. https://t.co/LK0omjAR9t
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) August 17, 2020
Biden’s lead shrunk to just 1 point — 49% to 48% — in the battleground states that’ll decide the winner in November. While national polls, when sampled correctly, can help the public understand the sentiment of the country, they hold little value in a presidential election. Individual states are important since the Electoral College decides the winner and loser. That’s what makes this poll so intriguing. The election is not Biden’s to win or lose.
As the summer has gone on, Biden’s lost a significant lead over Trump. Why it’s happening is unclear. However, the fractures between the far Left and Moderates in the party could have something to do with it.
Additionally, in the wake of summer riots over social justice issues, defunding police movements, violent crime waves in Democratic-led cities, and a recovering economy from COVID-19 shutdowns may all be playing a significant role in the president’s rebound.
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