Trump Surges to National Lead In New Poll

Trump Surges to National Lead In New Poll

(UnitedVoice.com) – Opinion polls still show Democratic presidential wannabe Joe Biden holding on to a lead as the election campaign enters its final months. But, President Trump is closing the gap – and now a new poll shows the president’s popularity is rising again. Biden might think he has it in the bag, but this election is still wide open.

Trump Support Recovering Strongly

Rasmussen Reports is the only polling company that still carries out daily surveys on President Trump’s approval rating, despite this being a key statistic for election analysts. Most pollsters simply ask people how they plan to vote — but many people they talk to won’t vote, which makes polls an unreliable guide. There are ways to control for this, but they have their limits.

However, the daily Rasmussen poll doesn’t focus on how people plan to vote. Instead, they ask respondents whether or not they approve of the job the president is doing. They also ask how likely people are to vote, and because it’s not directly related to the first question, people are more likely to give an accurate answer.

The latest data, collected this week and released Friday, September 18, shows 53% of people who said they’re likely to vote approve of Trump’s performance, including 44% who strongly approve. The other side is 46% disapprove, including 40% who strongly disapprove.

TEST

The raw numbers look like good news for the Trump campaign, but some quick analysis actually makes things look even better. Rasmussen calculates a “Presidential approval index” from the poll data, which makes it easier to look at long-term trends. This hasn’t risen above zero since January, and in June it dipped as low as -19, several times. However, in the last week, it’s been rising slightly – and on September 18, it jumped dramatically to +4, the highest it’s been since last September.

Have We Reached Peak Biden?

It’s been a tough year for President Trump, between the coronavirus pandemic and the violence sweeping many American cities. However, with the economy doing much better than expected, and Joe Biden visibly struggling as he moves out of his basement and back into the limelight, it seems a majority of Americans once more think he’s doing a good job. If today’s Rasmussen poll isn’t a one-off blip, hopes of a second term for Trump are still very much alive.

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