(UnitedVoice.com) – America has come a long way since the days of the suffrage movement and the passing of the 19th Amendment that secured a women’s right to vote. Women’s presence in local, state, and national politics are growing. Their influence at the ballot box is unparalleled in American history, and this year, they are expected to vote in larger numbers than men. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are going to need the women’s vote on Tuesday, November 3rd.
As America prepares to vote in the hours ahead, much attention has been given to female voters among political consultants and the media, and for good reason. In 2010, there were 7.43 million more women than men in America. That’s more than 51% of the total US population. According to Pew Research, in 2016, 63% of women voters showed up at the polls to cast their ballot compared with 59% of men. The four-point gap is not a new phenomenon. In 2008 and 2012, it was identical.
Can Trump Convince Women to Vote for Him?
In the closing days of the 2020 election, Biden and Trump are making a play for women voters in suburbia. According to Fox News latest poll on November 1, likely voters said they would be voting:
Biden/Harris: Men 46% – Women 56%
Trump/Pence: Men 50% – Women 39%
However, there is a caveat. This is a national poll, and state battleground polls provide a clearer picture of what could happen as ballot returns are counted on election night and the days following. Forget about the national polls. They mean nothing. They serve as talking points for the political chattering class. The Electoral College will be won or lost in the battleground states, and it’s those polls give the greatest hint as to what’s happening.
Battleground Polls Will Decide the Election, and They’re Breaking for Trump
The Trafalgar Group poll was the most accurate in 2016, and they use a different, proprietary methodology than media run polls that have proven to be unreliable. According to Trafalgar, in Florida, women’s participation is expected to outpace men’s by 54.4% to 45.6%. The race is tight for the women’s vote:
- 47.7% of women say they will vote for Biden versus 46.9% for Trump.
- 48.9% of men are solidly in Trump’s camp. Only 43.3% of men plan to vote for Biden.
This explains why Trump has an advantage and is currently polling ahead of Biden 49.6% to 46.9% overall in Florida.
That pattern is repeating in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, and it’s shattering the Democrat’s and media’s narrative that women are monolithic and intend to vote overwhelmingly for Biden.
If the Trafalgar poll holds up through election day, Trump will have convinced enough women in battleground states to vote for him. The ultimate poll is the election count.
With hours to go until election day, this election is extremely close, and women will have a large say in the outcome.
Don Purdum, Independent Political Analyst
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