Xi Jinping sees America’s capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro as a dangerous precedent that threatens global sovereignty while exposing the hollow nature of China’s so-called “all-weather” partnerships with authoritarian regimes.
Story Snapshot
- China condemned the U.S. operation as “reckless use of force” but took no concrete action to defend its “dear brother” Maduro
- Xi views the precedent as ammunition against future U.S. criticism of Chinese territorial ambitions in Taiwan and the South China Sea
- Beijing’s muted response reveals the limits of Chinese commitment when facing direct U.S. military action in the Western Hemisphere
- The operation exposes China’s $60+ billion investment in Venezuela to potential losses under any successor government
Beijing’s Rhetorical Outrage Masks Strategic Weakness
China’s Foreign Ministry issued its predictable condemnation within eight hours of the Caracas operation, demanding Maduro’s immediate release and denouncing violations of sovereignty. However, Beijing’s response revealed more about Chinese limitations than American overreach. Despite Xi Jinping’s November 2024 declaration of Venezuela as a “close friend, dear brother, and good partner,” China offered no military assistance or meaningful countermeasures when its partner faced U.S. forces.
The gap between Chinese rhetoric and action demonstrates the hollow nature of Beijing’s partnerships with vulnerable authoritarian regimes. While Xi elevated China-Venezuela ties to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” in 2023, this grand language provided zero protection when American resolve was tested. Chinese social media posts celebrating Maduro’s downfall were reportedly censored, suggesting even domestic opinion recognized the Venezuelan dictator’s unpopularity.
Xi Seeks to Weaponize the Precedent Against America
Beijing’s strategic calculus focuses on exploiting the Venezuela operation as ammunition for future confrontations with Washington. Legal experts warn that Xi and Vladimir Putin will invoke this precedent to justify their own territorial ambitions while claiming moral equivalence with American actions. The comparison to Panama’s Manuel Noriega in 1989 provides Xi with historical precedent to argue that U.S. complaints about Chinese aggression represent selective outrage and hypocrisy.
This rhetorical strategy serves Xi’s broader narrative of American hegemony threatening global sovereignty. China positions itself as defender of the “Global South” against unilateral U.S. interventions, despite the reality that many Latin American nations welcomed Maduro’s removal. The fractured regional response complicates Beijing’s simple anti-American narrative, as countries like Argentina and El Salvador openly supported the operation while others condemned it on sovereignty grounds.
Economic Pragmatism Trumps Ideological Solidarity
China’s $60-65 billion in Venezuelan loans and investments face uncertain prospects under any post-Maduro government. Beijing’s restrained response reflects hard-headed economic calculations rather than principled solidarity with socialist allies. Chinese analysts had already expressed frustration with Venezuelan corruption and mismanagement that squandered previous investments, leaving Beijing wary of throwing good money after bad.
The Venezuela setback reinforces Xi’s emerging pattern of offering high-rhetoric partnerships while capping real exposure to vulnerable regimes. China will likely engage quietly with Venezuelan successor authorities to protect existing energy contracts and infrastructure projects, prioritizing commercial pragmatism over ideological consistency. This approach signals to other potential partners the limits of Chinese protection when facing determined American action.
Sources:
The Capture of Nicolás Maduro: Implications for Taiwan and Global Democracy
Maduro’s downfall puts China’s relationship with Venezuela to the test
China, Venezuela, and U.S. Intervention in Latin America
Maduro’s Capture and International Law: The Noriega Precedent
