Marriage System Quietly Breaking

Two red double-decker buses decorated for a wedding with Just Married signs

America’s marriage decline is quietly reshaping family life, fertility, and the future of our kids—and the data show the damage will fall hardest on working‑class Americans who can least afford it.

Story Snapshot

Marriage in America is not disappearing, but it is becoming later, rarer, and more unequal, especially by class and education.
Divorce rates are at historic lows, yet fewer people ever marry and married-couple households have fallen below half of all U.S. households.
Younger and working-class Americans are being pushed out of marriage by economic pressures and cultural shifts encouraged by past policy and media elites.
Experts warn that shrinking marriage will deepen inequality, lower birth rates, and increase loneliness and dependence on government.

Marriage Is Shrinking, Not Vanishing—And That Matters for Conservatives

Federal data and major research centers agree: the United States is not witnessing the literal “end” of marriage, but a structural shift toward later, rarer, and more selective unions. Fewer adults are married at any given time, first marriages occur later in life, and a growing share never marries at all. At the same time, divorce has fallen to historic lows, so the smaller group that does marry tends to stay married. Marriage survives, but as a thinner, more exclusive institution.

For a conservative audience that prizes family, duty, and stability, this pattern should raise alarms. Marriage is increasingly concentrated among college-educated, higher‑income Americans, while working‑class and less‑educated adults see the steepest declines. Analysts describe marriage turning into a “status achievement,” something people do only after securing education, a career, and housing security. That model fits elite coastal professionals; it leaves ordinary Americans facing fragile relationships, cohabitation, and single parenthood instead of stable families.

How We Got Here: From Nearly Universal Marriage to a Patchwork of Relationships

In the 1950s and 1960s, marriage was nearly universal and early; sex, childbearing, and adulthood were culturally tied to the wedding altar, reinforced by churches and community norms. That changed dramatically across the 1970s and 1980s as no‑fault divorce, shifting gender roles, and liberalized cultural attitudes drove divorce up and weakened the traditional breadwinner model. By the 1990s and 2000s, marriage rates began a long decline, age at first marriage rose, and cohabitation became normal rather than scandalous.

Across the 2010s and into the 2020s, alternatives to marriage were fully normalized. Cohabiting parents, nonmarital births, and single‑adult households grew, while marriage increasingly looked like a “capstone” after career success rather than a “cornerstone” for building a life. Economic restructuring hit less‑educated men especially hard through deindustrialization and wage stagnation, shrinking the pool of men seen as “marriageable.” Women’s rising education and earnings reduced economic dependence on marriage and raised expectations for partners, further reinforcing a class-based marriage gap.

Post‑COVID Numbers: Fewer Weddings, Record‑Low Divorces, and a Growing Never‑Married Share

The COVID‑19 shock briefly scrambled the trend lines, but it did not reverse them. Lockdowns and restrictions in 2020 caused a sharp, temporary collapse in marriages as weddings were postponed. A rebound in 2021 and 2022 reflected pent‑up demand, not a renaissance of commitment, and by 2023 the underlying decline had resumed. Forecasts now project the national marriage rate falling further through the mid‑2020s, even as divorce rates sit near record lows for married adults.

At the household level, the country has crossed a symbolic line: fewer than half of U.S. households are now married couples. The share of adults who have never married is at or near record highs, with about a quarter of 40‑year‑olds in 2021 having never married, compared with just 6 percent in 1980. Projections from family researchers suggest that roughly one‑third of today’s late‑teen cohort may never marry by mid‑century if current patterns continue. Marriage has become both rarer and more socially stratified.

Who Is Being Left Out of Marriage—and What That Means for Kids and Community

The marriage retreat does not fall evenly across America. Marriage rates have declined among white, Hispanic, and Black adults alike, but the steepest drops are among Hispanics, and Black men and women continue to have the lowest marriage rates overall. Lower‑income and less‑educated adults, especially women without college degrees, experience the sharpest marriage declines, often tied to shrinking economic prospects among men in their dating pool. By contrast, college‑educated, higher‑income Americans still marry at high rates and divorce less.

For conservatives concerned with opportunity and order, this widening “marriage gap” matters because marriage still powerfully shapes outcomes for children and communities. Stable married families tend to provide more consistent resources, supervision, and social capital, giving kids better odds in school and the workforce. As marriage concentrates among the advantaged, those benefits increasingly flow to children who already start ahead, widening class divides. Meanwhile, communities with fewer marriages see more instability, weaker ties, and heavier reliance on overstretched government safety nets.

Experts warn that a rising never‑married share will also mean more loneliness and isolation, especially in later life, as fewer people have spouses or long‑term partners for support. That reality has implications for health care, housing, and caregiving, potentially shifting more burdens onto public programs. For a movement that believes in strong families and limited government, allowing marriage to hollow out among the working and middle class risks locking in a culture where bureaucracies try to replace what family once provided.

What Conservatives Should Watch Next: Policy, Culture, and the Future of the Family

Debate now centers on whether policy should explicitly promote marriage or simply accommodate a growing mix of family forms. Some analysts and advocates argue for tax reform, childcare support, and housing policies that make it easier for younger adults to marry and raise children, especially in an era of high costs and stagnant wages. Others want a neutral approach that boosts single parents and cohabiting households without prioritizing marriage, even though marriage remains closely linked to higher fertility and family stability.

For constitutional conservatives and Trump-era voters who see family as the first and most important institution, the stakes are clear. A society where marriage is a rare luxury for the elite, and a fading option for everyone else, is a society that will struggle with lower birth rates, deeper inequality, and more citizens turning to government when family fails. The data show marriage is not dead—but it is drifting out of reach for millions of ordinary Americans. Reversing that drift should be central to any serious pro-family agenda.